Is energy becoming the world’s most powerful strategic asset? Global energy policy is shifting fast. Are we in a Cold War where energy is the weapon? What does this mean for Canada, the US, and the world?
Robert “RJ” Johnston, senior director of research at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, recently joined Stewart Muir on the Power Struggle podcast.
NEW U.S. POLICIES
RJ notes “a pretty dramatic change in direction” under Donald Trump, with a new focus on energy security, affordability and sustainability. RJ tells Stewart that the net-zero climate agenda is not going to disappear completely, but will be subordinate to policies on energy security and affordability.
A SHIFT IN CANADA?
Canada could also see a shift to energy security and affordability if the Conservatives win the next federal election, RJ suggests. Climate would still be part of the agenda, but there’d be more emphasis on energy and project approvals and on efforts to coordinate with the US on energy security issues.
RJ points out to Stewart that Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has made affordability a priority. “Trump and Pierre Poilievre have captured that political momentum, Trump all the way to the White House, and we’ll see what happens in a Canadian election.”
CANADA-U.S. TRADE
Canada has 80% of its trade with the US, and it’s “an asymmetric relationship.” So RJ wonders aloud about how to deal trade and political negotiation. Do we confront the U.S. and threaten retaliation and escalation? Or do we find areas of cooperation and strength and collaboration?
Are we still special, or are we “just another country” with which Trump wants a new economic and political relationship?
ARCTIC SECURITY
With the melting of Arctic ice, increased shipping is becoming an issue. But RJ also notes issues on Arctic minerals, oil, ores, and “all kinds of resource up there.” Plus “the question of the geopolitical confrontation between the U.S. and Russia heating up again.”
LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS (LNG)
Stewart asked how RJ sees LNG: as an economic opportunity but also a climate solution? RJ suggests that as Canada adds its own LNG production, “we’ll probably be part of that conversation and there’ll be an opportunity to work with the U.S.”
The U.S. now may be seeing LNG as part of its climate strategy but “it’s obviously a controversial idea.”
NET ZERO 2050
Stewart asks if Net Zero 2050 is possible. RJ says we’ve “moved to more certainty on the technological pathway.” But we have less certainty on “the financial pathway.” Who pays for all this? And what about payment from developing economies?
All in all, RJ says an energy transition is happening, but demand for fossil fuels is not going to disappear. It may shift towards lower carbon-intensity and more carbon capture and the like, but “I don’t think the transition should be viewed as the end of the oil and gas age, at least not yet or anytime soon.”
And there’s much more.
This episode will change how you see the future of energy, the economy, and your community as a whole.
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- Video on Power Struggle’s YouTube: https://ow.ly/ttBf50UWpNe
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